Interesting data. Tim, I would be curious to know how you interpret the data.
Before further investigation to try to support any formal or final conclusions, my initial thoughts or guesses are:
It looks like the drop in most mainline Christian churches could show an overall distrust by all people in our country, including Christians, but particularly younger generations, of what people generally think of as “organized religion“ and that that distrust has been accelerating. The growth in PCA could be partly due to many of the PCUSA churches leaving the liberal decline of that church body, and moving over to the more conservative Presbyterian bodies. The Evangelical/non-denominational churches are at least initially viewed by people attracted to them as an alternative to “organized religion.“ The growth of heretical bodies like Mormon churches, Jehovah’s Witnesses, etc, might be a growing appeal of cult-like, charismatic types of leadership to more people in our country. It might be that as the general population grows more distrusting of “organized religion,“ it becomes more attracted to charismatic leaders, in the search for meaning and happiness, so more people are drawn into following cult-like, charismatic leadership.
All very sad, that is true, but maybe corresponding to sensibilities of the people in this country at this time.
In 1972, Dean Kelley wrote Why Conservative Churches Are Growing. It was close to the sexual revolution, but he was very prescient: demanding churches grow and accommodating churches die. The data here more or less make him a prophet.
Every major American denomination that has female suffrage, ordained women, adopted same-sex unions, and installed gay clergy is in freefall. Every body that has refused the cultural pressure is either growing or declining at a fraction of the rate. The correlation is not iron-clad, but it's also not accidental or incidental. Perhaps there is almost a sociological law that shows itself: religion that costs nothing is worth nothing to those who might join it.
There are exceptions like the Pentecostals who have ordained lots of women, but they have resisted gay and lesbian clergy, and same sex marriage. One thing to note here is that the growth of the Pentecostals is also correlated with third-world immigration to the US. Pentecostal denoms are incredibly popular in countries with heavy inflows. The same effect is apparent in the Oriental Orthodox churches in the US, which have benefited from the Middle East wars. Likewise, if we track the growth of Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Sikhism, they are growing explosively because of immigration.
Kelley's flag bearer for the overall thesis is the Amish. They are ethnically and culturally homogenous. They have strict standards for belonging and participation, with a high demand for contributions of money, time, labor, and skill. They have resisted all cultural pressure related to fertility, agricultural practices, feminism, vaccinations, etc etc. The only concession they made was accepting help in the 1980s to address a particular genetic problem. That said, the Amish do have a relatively high number of genetic disorders because of inbreeding, even if they have a vanishingly low autism rate.
I agree that there is a strong correlation between the role of women in the church and society and church membership/association. This relationship is strongly reflected by which U.S. faith traditions are growing and which are shrinking.
Another relationship that is provable using existing instruments is the correlation between conservative politics (support or sympathy with the Republican Party) and conservative religious beliefs and practices. This is particularly strong for whites. African Americans and Hispanics (particularly first generation) are less likely to follow this trend.
In general, 85% of evangelicals are Republicans, and 80% of white Republicans are Christian.
While the LCSM emphasizes Martin Luther’s two-kingdoms doctrine, the correlation between religious affiliation and political affiliation started in the 1980s with the Moral Majority and has been steadily increasing for the last 50 years.
It would be interesting to see Ad Crucem News run the numbers on this: My initial research shows this correlation (and probably causation) holds true in general, within denominations and within age cohorts.
There is a correlation between doctrinal positions and party politics, but it is loosening. In fact, we are going to experience a profound dislocation in the coming years because the Republican Party is increasingly making Christian Zionism a litmus test for its plank. Amillennial beliefs are being demonized as "Replacement Theology".
You personally might not like Christian Zionism, but most LCMS members overlook that issue and vote Republican because of their dislike for the Democratic Party's position on women, gay rights, and abortion.
According to several surveys, it is estimated that a supermajority of LCMS members have similar views on women to Democrats (should vote, should work out of the home, should delay marriage, should delay childbearing in pursuit of an education and career, are ontologically identical to men, etc). Significant minorities don't have a problem with same homosexuality, sex marriage, or abortion.
Christian Zionism is not about a personal preference, but doctrinal truth. Unfortunately, my experience is that LCMS parishioners have a poor understanding of eschatology and have imbibed a default Dispensationalism.
Thank you for sharing that analysis. Yes, one thing I wondered about was whether growth in some of the churches, other than the Oriental Orthodox, might also be correlated to recent immigration trends. It sounds like you think it might.
May god help us all.
Interesting data. Tim, I would be curious to know how you interpret the data.
Before further investigation to try to support any formal or final conclusions, my initial thoughts or guesses are:
It looks like the drop in most mainline Christian churches could show an overall distrust by all people in our country, including Christians, but particularly younger generations, of what people generally think of as “organized religion“ and that that distrust has been accelerating. The growth in PCA could be partly due to many of the PCUSA churches leaving the liberal decline of that church body, and moving over to the more conservative Presbyterian bodies. The Evangelical/non-denominational churches are at least initially viewed by people attracted to them as an alternative to “organized religion.“ The growth of heretical bodies like Mormon churches, Jehovah’s Witnesses, etc, might be a growing appeal of cult-like, charismatic types of leadership to more people in our country. It might be that as the general population grows more distrusting of “organized religion,“ it becomes more attracted to charismatic leaders, in the search for meaning and happiness, so more people are drawn into following cult-like, charismatic leadership.
All very sad, that is true, but maybe corresponding to sensibilities of the people in this country at this time.
In 1972, Dean Kelley wrote Why Conservative Churches Are Growing. It was close to the sexual revolution, but he was very prescient: demanding churches grow and accommodating churches die. The data here more or less make him a prophet.
Every major American denomination that has female suffrage, ordained women, adopted same-sex unions, and installed gay clergy is in freefall. Every body that has refused the cultural pressure is either growing or declining at a fraction of the rate. The correlation is not iron-clad, but it's also not accidental or incidental. Perhaps there is almost a sociological law that shows itself: religion that costs nothing is worth nothing to those who might join it.
There are exceptions like the Pentecostals who have ordained lots of women, but they have resisted gay and lesbian clergy, and same sex marriage. One thing to note here is that the growth of the Pentecostals is also correlated with third-world immigration to the US. Pentecostal denoms are incredibly popular in countries with heavy inflows. The same effect is apparent in the Oriental Orthodox churches in the US, which have benefited from the Middle East wars. Likewise, if we track the growth of Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Sikhism, they are growing explosively because of immigration.
Kelley's flag bearer for the overall thesis is the Amish. They are ethnically and culturally homogenous. They have strict standards for belonging and participation, with a high demand for contributions of money, time, labor, and skill. They have resisted all cultural pressure related to fertility, agricultural practices, feminism, vaccinations, etc etc. The only concession they made was accepting help in the 1980s to address a particular genetic problem. That said, the Amish do have a relatively high number of genetic disorders because of inbreeding, even if they have a vanishingly low autism rate.
I agree that there is a strong correlation between the role of women in the church and society and church membership/association. This relationship is strongly reflected by which U.S. faith traditions are growing and which are shrinking.
Another relationship that is provable using existing instruments is the correlation between conservative politics (support or sympathy with the Republican Party) and conservative religious beliefs and practices. This is particularly strong for whites. African Americans and Hispanics (particularly first generation) are less likely to follow this trend.
In general, 85% of evangelicals are Republicans, and 80% of white Republicans are Christian.
While the LCSM emphasizes Martin Luther’s two-kingdoms doctrine, the correlation between religious affiliation and political affiliation started in the 1980s with the Moral Majority and has been steadily increasing for the last 50 years.
It would be interesting to see Ad Crucem News run the numbers on this: My initial research shows this correlation (and probably causation) holds true in general, within denominations and within age cohorts.
There is a correlation between doctrinal positions and party politics, but it is loosening. In fact, we are going to experience a profound dislocation in the coming years because the Republican Party is increasingly making Christian Zionism a litmus test for its plank. Amillennial beliefs are being demonized as "Replacement Theology".
Then run the numbers.
You personally might not like Christian Zionism, but most LCMS members overlook that issue and vote Republican because of their dislike for the Democratic Party's position on women, gay rights, and abortion.
According to several surveys, it is estimated that a supermajority of LCMS members have similar views on women to Democrats (should vote, should work out of the home, should delay marriage, should delay childbearing in pursuit of an education and career, are ontologically identical to men, etc). Significant minorities don't have a problem with same homosexuality, sex marriage, or abortion.
Christian Zionism is not about a personal preference, but doctrinal truth. Unfortunately, my experience is that LCMS parishioners have a poor understanding of eschatology and have imbibed a default Dispensationalism.
Please prove it with the numbers....
Thank you for sharing that analysis. Yes, one thing I wondered about was whether growth in some of the churches, other than the Oriental Orthodox, might also be correlated to recent immigration trends. It sounds like you think it might.