Charticle: Texas District LCMS by the Numbers
What can we learn about the health of the LCMS in the Lone Star State?
I am grateful to Thomas Wolfmueller, who was recently elected to the Texas District Board of Directors, for the raw data. The data may contain errors and omissions, so please don’t shoot the messenger, use it to trade, gamble, or issue guarantees and collateral.
If you want Ad Crucem News to examine your datasets, please send them along!
FORECASTS
CONGREGATIONS
ANALYSIS
1. Overall Membership and Attendance Decline
The data reveals a significant reduction in church membership and attendance over the decade:
Baptized Members: Dropped by about 33%, from 122,173 in 2014 to 82,045 in 2024.
Average Attendance: Fell from 155.2 per congregation in 2014 to 130.22 in 2024.
Attendance Trends: Average attendance per congregation fell from 155 in 2014 to 130 in 2024, with a significant dip in 2020 (117 due to COVID-19 restrictions) followed by a partial recovery.
Note: COVID-19 losses are effectively permanent across every district, underscoring how shortsighted and venal the LCMS’s capitulation to the pandemic restrictions was.
Congregational Closures: Congregations decreased from 330 to 273, with closures and consolidations accelerating and amplified by COVID-19.
2. Rural vs. Urban vs. Suburban Analysis
To analyze rural, urban, and suburban differences, churches were categorized based on their city and county locations:
Urban: Churches in major cities (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, Fort Worth, El Paso).
Suburban: Churches in counties containing these urban centers but in smaller cities (e.g., Tomball in Harris County).
Rural: Churches in all other counties.
Key Observations
Urban:
Example: Memorial Lutheran Church (Houston, Harris County) grew from 845 to 1,198 baptized members (+41.8%).
Note: Memorial is the flagship confessional congregation in the area.
Trend: A minority of urban churches showed growth, but the overall dataset indicates that decline is predominant.
Suburban:
Example: Messiah Lutheran Church (Plano, Collin County) increased from 2,376 to 2,712 members (+14.1%).
Note: Messiah is a blended confessional/missional congregation.
Example: Trinity Klein Lutheran Church (Klein, Harris County) declined from 3,277 to 2,251 members (-31.3%).
Note: Trinity is a blended traditional/contemporary congregation, but leans more contemporary and missional.
Trend: Suburban areas exhibited mixed results, with notable growth in some cases and significant decline in others. There is some indication that traditional worship service churches have started to outperform
Rural:
Example: Saint Paul Lutheran Church (Giddings, Lee County) grew slightly from 671 to 718 members (+7.0%).
Note: Saint Paul is a traditional congregation. Percentage changes can be misleading off a small base.
Example: Zion Lutheran Church (Abilene, Taylor County) declined from 772 to 706 members (-8.5%).
Note: Saint Paul is a blended contemporary/traditional congregation. Percentage changes can be misleading off a small base.
Trend: Rural churches showed modest changes, with both slight growth and decline observed.
Comparisons
Rural vs. Urban: In terms of growth, urban churches like Memorial in Houston outperformed rural churches like Zion in Abilene, though the overall decline confirms urban areas are not immune.
Rural vs. Suburban: Suburban churches (e.g., Messiah in Plano) showed higher growth potential than rural ones (e.g., Saint Paul in Giddings), but large suburban declines (e.g., Trinity Klein) indicate variability.
Suburban vs. Urban: Suburban churches had standout growth cases (e.g., Messiah in Plano) compared to urban ones, but urban churches like Memorial also grew, indicating no clear dominance.
Conclusion: The data shows no consistent pattern favoring rural, urban, or suburban areas over the whole period, but traditional liturgical churches appear to be growing or retaining members and attendees better than contemporary and blended congregations.
3. Impact of Schools
116 out of 273 churches in 2024 had affiliated schools.
Key Observations
Growth Examples:
Messiah Lutheran Church (Plano, with school): Grew from 2,376 to 2,712 members (+14.1%).
Saint Paul Lutheran Church (Fort Worth, with school): Increased from 1,664 to 1,875 members (+12.7%).
Decline Examples:
Trinity Klein Lutheran Church (Klein, with school): Dropped from 3,277 to 2,251 members (-31.3%).
Salem Lutheran Church (Tomball, with school): Decreased from 3,035 to 2,148 members (-29.2%).
Note: Salem is a contemporary congregation.
No School Comparison:
Prince of Peace Lutheran Church (Carrollton, no school): Declined from 1,681 to 958 members (-43.0%).
Note: Prince of Peace is a contemporary congregation.
Conclusion
Churches with schools exhibit mixed trends, with some showing significant growth and others substantial decline. The presence of a school does not consistently correlate with membership growth, as churches without schools also experienced varied outcomes. However, it was notable that contemporary congregations in this sub-set also exhibited material losses.
4. Areas of Most Growth: City and County
By City
Plano:
Messiah Lutheran Church: Grew from 2,376 to 2,712 members (+336, +14.1%).
Highlight: One of the largest percentage increases among churches with full data.
Houston:
Memorial Lutheran Church: Increased from 845 to 1,198 members (+353, +41.8%).
Note: Other Houston churches showed mixed results, but this stands out.
By County
Collin County (Suburban Dallas):
This includes Plano and McKinney (e.g., Our Savior Lutheran Church grew from 753 to 832, +10.5 % %).
Trend: Pockets of growth in a fast-growing suburban region.
Note: It is significant that all across the LCMS, churches in growing suburbs are outperforming, e.g. Grace Lutheran in Parker, CO. Lesson: secure land in planned single-family housing developments.
Conclusion
Suburban areas like Plano (Collin County) and select urban Houston churches demonstrate the most notable growth, driven by population increases or specific church initiatives.
5. Areas of Most Decline: City and County
By City
Klein:
Trinity Klein Lutheran Church: Declined from 3,277 to 2,251 members (-1,026, -31.3%).
Note: One of the largest absolute declines in the whole dataset.
Tomball:
Salem Lutheran Church: Dropped from 3,035 to 2,148 members (-887, -29.2%).
By County
Harris County (Houston and Suburbs):
Includes Klein and Tomb Bertha examples, alongside others like Lamb of God Lutheran Church (Humble), declining from 520 to 425 (-18.3%).
Note: Lamb of God is a blended contemporary congregation.
Trend: Significant declines despite urban and suburban status.
Dallas County:
Zion Lutheran Church (Dallas): Fell from 1,483 to 1,083 members (-400, -27.0%).
Note: Zion is a traditional congregation.
Bethel Lutheran Church (Dallas): Dropped from 508 to 238 members (-270, -53.1%).
Note: Bethel is a contemporary congregation.
Conclusion
Decline is pronounced in both urban (Harris, Dallas Counties) and suburban areas, with large churches in Klein and Tomball showing substantial losses.
6. Cohort Analysis: Church Size Distribution
Key Changes
Small Churches (<50): Increased from 79 in 2014 to 94 in 2024 (+15, +19.0%). A sharp rise occurred in 2020 (93), due to membership declines during COVID-19.
Medium Churches (50-99, 100-199):
50-99: Decreased from 37 to 33 (-4, -10.8%).
100-199: Dropped from 22 to 15 (-7, -31.8%).
Larger Churches (200-499, >500):
200-499: Declined from 8 to 3 (-5, -62.5%).
500: Stable at 2, with a brief increase to 3 in 2019.
Interpretation
The rise in small churches (<50) and decline in medium-to-large churches (100-499) reflect a broader trend of membership and attendance loss, with churches shrinking into smaller size categories or new small congregations forming.
The stability of churches with >500 members suggests a few resilient large congregations (e.g., Concordia Lutheran Church in San Antonio, 9,812 members in 2024).
Conclusion
General Decline: Church membership and attendance across Texas declined significantly from 2014 to 2024, with a 33% drop in baptized members.
Rural/Urban/Suburban: No category consistently outperforms others; growth occurs in isolated urban (Houston) and suburban (Plano) cases, while decline is widespread.
Schools: No clear advantage for churches with schools; outcomes vary widely.
Growth Areas: Plano (Collin County) and parts of Houston (Harris County) stand out.
Decline Areas: Klein and Tomball (Harris County) and Dallas (Dallas County) show significant losses.
Cohort Shift: The increase in small churches and decrease in medium-sized ones indicate a fragmenting or shrinking church landscape. A few large congregations may have resources or strategies that seem to insulate them from the overall District trend.
Loss of giving: Although Texas has induced increased giving per person over the years, it is insufficient to overcome the net loss of members, especially attendees.
Concordia University Texas: It is worth noting that CTX’s enrollment growth until its rebellious secession had no impact on District statistics. Since cutting loose, CTX’s total unduplicated headcount has compressed dramatically, falling from 3,338 in 2021 to 2,298 in 2024, or -7%. The marginal impact of those lost students is not trivial.
The Texas District is on trend compared with all LCMS districts. The future will be smaller in nearly every respect, unless the Lord sees fit to reverse this trend. It is also apparent that the shrinking will produce consolidation and rationalization, with fewer churches taking a larger share of members and attendees, potentially accelerating problems for small congregations already on the brink.
